Texas braces for potential emergency grid conditions as ailing wind, spiking outages squeeze power supply
The Texas grid is bracing for what appears likely to be its tightest evening so far this summer. ERCOT has issued a watch for reserves potentially dropping to emergency levels, the sixth such warning in the last seven days.
Low wind, high thermal outages squeezing power supply
While demand and temperatures have dropped off from recent highs, wind generation is puking through the afternoon and evening, and thermal plant outages have nearly doubled from the previous week. Together, these conditions are starving the grid of much-needed supply.
Reserves are forecast to reach their lowest levels so far this summer, potentially falling far enough to trigger emergency energy alerts.
Gone with the wind
ERCOT solar is consistent and coincident with demand in summer, providing a 13GW midday floor under renewable power supply. Texas wind generation is much more volatile, and prone to dying in afternoon and evening doldrums when demand is highest.
ERCOT wind generation is forecast to deliver just 3GW through the tightest evening hours today when solar falls offline.
With ERCOT driven more than ever by wind and solar, the tightest grid conditions no longer occur simply when demand is highest, but when demand is elevated and variable renewable output is low.
Not as hot today. Good time for maintenance outages, unless…
Thermal plant outages have spiked to nearly double their levels from last week’s heat wave as many plants take delayed maintenance. Together with weak wind generation, this is enough to squeeze supply to extreme levels.
While peak load is unlikely to reach quite the highs hit earlier this summer, the combination of weak wind generation, relatively high demand, and any additional outages will continue to test Texas grid reliability through the coming weeks.
Thank you. More evidence from ERCOT regarding the folly of aggressively promoting and incenting inherently intermittent and unreliable Texas solar and wind instead of expanding reliable, emission-free nuclear power generation at the South Texas Project or at Comanche Peak. The ERCOT system - wide prices maxed out at or near $5,000.00 / MWh this evening for about 90 minutes. This NASA page supports the perspective that we will likely have more of these Texas hot spells in the future connected with increased global fossil fuel combustion. https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/3143/steamy-relationships-how-atmospheric-water-vapor-amplifies-earths-greenhouse-effect/